Drew Fudenberg @DrewFudenberg
Joined January 2013-
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Drew Fudenberg retweeted
Cooperation is possible – we’ve done it before. At the height of the Cold War, Schelling observed that rivals may cooperate if only for “the avoidance of mutual disaster”. We find ourselves in a similar situation, and once again look to game theory for guidance on the institutions & infrastructure we need to build.
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@DG_Rand @andrewjkoh @hendrycks @DKokotajlo Just how small T could be would depend on “stuff”
@DG_Rand @andrewjkoh @hendrycks @DKokotajlo Hi Dave, good question. The perpetual-racing equilibrium is a strong punishment and typically stronger than needed. When the IC constraint holds strictly a weaker punishment would do. I conjecture we could use “mutual racing for T” instead of mutual racing forever…
@BasilHalperin As I told Glenn, this leads out the fact that if students from the top eight schools published 5% fewer papers in the top five journals , they won’t publish 5% fewer papers because they will probably accept some other papers that were right on the margin before.
@stevenstrogatz @stephen_wolfram See also this much more recent survey of experimental evidence from games were participants play the same repeated game over and over against different anonymous opponents scholar.google.com/citations?view…
@stevenstrogatz @stephen_wolfram This old paper looks at a notion of long run equilibrium (evolutionary stability) as opposed to explicit dynamics, but it does have both noise and evolution: jstor.org/stable/2006583…
@FutureEconJacob @GoogleDeepMind And we started working on this project last April before Andrew finished his PhD and joined deep mind.
@FutureEconJacob @GoogleDeepMind Oops voice dictation error Don’t know where the last orphaned lowercase word in that reply came from
Drew Fudenberg retweeted
Our game theory perspective complements many thoughtful proposals by @hendrycks et al, AI Futures Project @DKokotajlo et al, as well as work by the pacing.tech team. We hope many more people will work on this – the problem is so important and there's so little time!
@alexolegimas This paper with @andrewjkoh does model safety but so far it only includes the frontier firms: economics.mit.edu/sites/default/…
@littmath Wow! I have yet to manage that, though of the 9 comments TE just sent me on a conditionally accepted paper 8 were either very minor or dismissible. (The one substantive correction was that we had misdescribed a paper in our lit review.)
@muunver @danielgott @IvanWerning @lauradoval @muunver, great that’s good to hear!
@danielgott @IvanWerning @lauradoval I think the game theory society should take the lead in helping organize a replacement journal
@danielgott @IvanWerning @lauradoval Yes, JEEA is owned by the European economic Association. What ivan is referring to is that its predecessor, the European economic review, was not. A dispute with the for profit owner was the reason the EEA ditched that journal and founded JEEA
@hndlehndlekyun @ben_golub It takes some work, but we found it was doable with TE. And the replacement for GEB should have the backing of the game theory society, which would make it easier, as when the European economic Association dropped its affiliation with the EER and started the JEEA
@ben_golub Definitely agree. My devils advocate position is that it could be an inefficient use of time if refine generates too many false positives.
@ben_golub 3. We all know of individual counter examples to this hypothesis, but it still might be true overall.
@ben_golub 2. As someone who is relatively senior, I would like to think that selection bias will make the marginal papers from my cohort relatively more interesting people whose work is more interesting are more likely to continue writing.
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