Hodhodata@statistics @Statisticizer

@sms_ry 🙏 🫶

🚨The Polar Vortex stretching/elongation associated with a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) over the Arctic is beginning to materialize, with signals pointing towards early November — as anticipated in my forecasts published four months ago, based on solar space weather, magnetospheric activity, and atmospheric parameters . 🔎 Check the comments for links to the original forecasts and analyses.

Andrej / severe-weather.eu @Recretos

9 hours ago

The Polar Vortex is about to take a big hit 🌀📉 After a short boost to 22 m/s around Oct 24, both ECMWF and GFS show a sharp deceleration, with 10mb zonal winds dropping to 8–10 m/s by early November. That’s below the 1958–2025 record minimum for the date. At the same time, the

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I think it's still a bit too early to definitively confirm tropospheric coupling for that date. A strong SSW usually weakens the polar vortex, which can then trigger cold air intrusions into lower latitudes, but late-October PV diagnostics will give us a much clearer picture. In my analysis, the polar vortex looks more elongated/stretched rather than split, suggesting potential wave-1-dominant coupling dynamics. Let's see how the physical metrics evolve over the next couple of weeks.

السلام عليكم ورحمة الله وبركاته. نشرت عنها اخر ١٨ يوم عدة نشرات. لو مكانك استعين ب Grok يلاقي النشرات من على حسابي خصوصا الي ذكرت بيها الجزيرة العربية و السعودية و الخليج العربي اخر ٣٠ يوم، يطلع ليك القديم و الحديث. عموما ان شاء الله فترة مبشرة بشهر نوفمبر و اواخر الحالي أكتوبر، شهر عشرة. َاسعد الله مساك.

June forecast (not deleted fortunately) x.com/Statisticizer/…

Hodhodata@statistics @Statisticizer

4 months ago

🚨#HeadsUp: Early Polar SSW & Vortex Weakening Signal — Autumn 2026 . Last year, I highlighted the potential for an unusually early and (rare occurrence) November Polar Vortex disruption and Sudden Stratospheric Warming events, months before it became widely discussed by

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@DVD171014 Maybe from today until second decade of November we can still have episodes of rainfall. The second half of the month leans for subsidence however with at least 10-12 days of stable to semi-stable weather based on the analog views. God Knows Best!

🇪🇸🇵🇹🇪🇺 Iberian Peninsula & Southwestern Europe The monthly numerical models (CFS, ECMWF) are pointing towards a drier-than-average November across the Iberian Peninsula, which is a plausible and expected scenario. However, the first half of the month could still bring some significant rainfall, particularly during the first third of November, according to the analog-based statistical ensemble analysis. Pls read the previous forecasts in the links & read between-the-lines comments on November. Hopefully, the month will get off to a wet start! 🌧️🤞

Hodhodata@statistics @Statisticizer

9 hours ago

@JCMCJCMCJCMC @raposu @meteomostoles x.com/Statisticizer/…

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@meteo_paradas The azores high implies subsidence.

Earlier made Polar Vortex Instability forecasts September follow Up x.com/Statisticizer/… August earliest forecast x.com/Statisticizer/… Another forecast was made June ( deleted inadvertently either by me or x) x.com/Statisticizer/…

Hodhodata@statistics @Statisticizer

2 weeks ago

Links to previous statistical based forecasts of Polar Vortex during autumn and winter . These forecasts methods had succeeded in capturing four SSW last year 2025-2026 season four months time ahead of their observed time , including a rare SSW event measured during late November

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@mohicano1019 Thank You for remembering that🙏, this was in June. Polar stretching and SSW event ( oddly early one) is expected within first decade of November based on statistical analog probabilistic views.

@maria_g76 Hi Maria! I would not say it will be summer, but the second half of November can be highlight with weather stability in general. The first decade of the month however is expected-according to my estimates- to be a bit stormy!

و عليكم السلام ورحمة الله وبركاته اسعد الله مساك، نشرت اغلب التوقعات للخريف و الشتاء بالمجمل و بشكل شهري لمنطقة الشرق الأوسط بشةل عام آخر شهرين مزود بخرائط توضيحية. للاسف انها تقادمت في حسابي بسبب كثرة تعاقب النشرات لعدة مناطق حغرافية اهتم فيها ، لو تستعين ب Grok تقدر توصل لكل النشرات التي تخص الشرق الأوسط و الخليج العربي بالمجمل، فرص الهطول ان شاء الله تتزابد لمنطقة الخليج العربي بنوفمبر و ديسمبر لكن فرص منطقتك حولين قطر الإمارات عمان أعلى بشهر ديسمبر و باشهر الشتاء فيبراير و مارس حسب التحليل المبني احصائيا الي عملته و هو احتمالي احصائي ليس حتمي و كل شيء قبل و بعد بيد الله سبحانه وتعالى مجري السحاب و منزل الغيث.

@UnintendedCons5 In addition if correct this means the highest 3 month running period would fall short of several other strong events. ( dont use the word super, its a media hype term)

@NikolovScience @ettourneur @TexelElf @andrewp109 Interesting and eye-opening!🙏

@Mathbert10 The chart is depicting zonal wind anomalies, Not the surface 2m-Temperatures. The Zonal winds are the U-component of wind anomalies indicating the magnitude of the westerly-easterly winds.

@JCMCJCMCJCMC @raposu @meteomostoles x.com/Statisticizer/…

Hodhodata@statistics @Statisticizer

2 days ago

@oier_seoane Good afternoon! The first half of November can be wetter for your region based on my interim analyses.The first half I believe can become wet to wetter than expected, while the second half we may observe a trend for semi-stable weather, th Azores High can rise that can bring

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Good afternoon! The first half of November can be wetter for your region based on my interim analyses.The first half I believe can become wet to wetter than expected, while the second half we may observe a trend for semi-stable weather, th Azores High can rise that can bring some subsidence for west Mediterranean region with potential for Positive North Atlantic Oscillation ( east based) forcing the storm track northward toward UK and Western European continental land. In case you have missed the prior forecasts I've made for November for the west Mediterranean region and north africa you can find them in the below links , they cover November first & second decades. First decade-November x.com/Statisticizer/… Second decade-November x.com/Statisticizer/…

Hodhodata@statistics @Statisticizer

6 days ago

🛑🌍 Early Weather Outlook: Mid-November (Nov 10–22) ⏱️ The attached interim probabilistic analog maps (156-day composite analysis via PyreWeather) depict expected atmospheric patterns for the second dekad of November. 🌀 Atmospheric Patterns (500mb Geopotential Heights): ☀️

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⚠️🔴 AEMET RED WARNING | TORRENTIAL RAINFALL 📍 Southern Valencia Coast and Northern Alicante Coast, Spain 🗓️ Sunday 18 – Monday 19 October ➡️ Rainfall totals could exceed 200 mm in 12 hours, with locally up to 300 mm in 24 hours. ⚠️ A highly adverse weather situation, with a serious risk of flash flooding, rapidly rising rivers, and dangerous inundation. 📊 🚨⌛️ I have also attached an updated statistical analog-based rainfall analysis for 16–23 October. My latest analysis indicates potentially higher inland rainfall totals than numerical weather prediction models have suggested so far, particularly across southeastern Spain and inland areas As well as Algerian central coastlines. Not detected by ndigital models yet? It does not mean it might not become at later model runs. 🚨So, please follow your local Meteorological and civil defense services warnings. The coming forecast updates will be important in assessing whether operational models begin to capture this potentially enhanced inland rainfall signal. Also, can my analog-based estimates /predictions fail? The answer is: Please consider them wrong from now, but stay aware and alert. A wrong forecast taken seriously is better than the taking the most accurate forecast too late! ⚠️ Stay alert, monitor official weather warnings, and follow local emergency guidance and share the forecasts ♻️. Early warnings save lives and property. 🙏 Be safe! Best regards Mr. M @Statisticizer.

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Hodhodata@statistics @Statisticizer

5 days ago

🚨💡⚡️Of course, as @AEMET_Esp 🇪🇸 advises, patience ⌛️ is a virtue! Here is my analog-based analysis of probabilistic rainfall estimates for 12–22 October, with particular emphasis on the Iberian Peninsula and North Africa (left map). The deep-red precipitation anomalies 🟥

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