Bitcoin & Global Macro Research | Join TBL Pro today: https://t.co/k95FWUusXj | Read Bitcoin Age by Nik Bhatia: https://t.co/s1Cmn9UP5Cthebitcoinlayer.com Los AngelesJoined May 2022
🚨 NEW VIDEO 🚨
Bitcoin Wants To Run But Liquidity Won’t Let It
Demian on the two forces pulling against each other right now: bitcoin’s own supply and demand have turned bullish, while rates, bond volatility and the dollar are still holding it back.
🚨 NEW VIDEO 🚨
The Math Behind $1 Million Bitcoin
Nik on the power law and the exponent Giovanni Santostasi solved for, why it took four years to go from $1,000 to $10,000 and eight more to reach $100,000, and why bitcoin is trading below its power law right now.
RIP Perry Mehrling
Your hierarchy framework was the direct inspiration for my book Layered Money.
Without your teachings, I’m not sure where I would be today as a monetary researcher and professor.
A sad day for all students of money. THANK YOU for everything you taught us.
🚨 NEW VIDEO 🚨
Nobody Has Ever Lost Money Holding Bitcoin Six Years
Nik on bitcoin returning 63% a year over the last decade against 12 to 13% for stocks and gold, the five year window where gold actually won, and why he expects forward returns in the 30s.
🚨 NEW VIDEO 🚨
Bitcoin Just Lost $82,700
Nik on why $71,000 to $74,000 is the next support, why the dollar squeeze is pulling liquidity negative, and why bond volatility finally coming down may mean the worst of this is behind us.
🚨 NEW VIDEO 🚨
Bitcoin Has A 7x To Catch Gold
Nik on the 138 ounces of monetary gold that exist for every bitcoin, why bitcoin is climbing while liquidity drains, and why he's watching for a European central bank print.
There are 138 ounces of monetary gold in existence for every 1 bitcoin. At today's prices the market only asks you to choose between roughly 20 ounces of gold or 1 bitcoin, so for the two monetary assets to equate, bitcoin would need to reach $573,000. Nik Bhatia lays out why he thinks that 7x is within reach, even if it means waiting into the 2030s, and how TBL's new combined Liquidity and State Grid signal is reading the market right now.
Read here on Pulse: thebitcoinlayer.com/research/there…
🚨 NEW VIDEO 🚨
Bitcoin Doesn’t Care About The Bond Crisis
Nik on the bitcoin gold ratio charging to 20.7, why the French German bond spread has only moved like this twice in thirty years, and why falling oil could ironically rescue the French bond market.
🚨 NEW VIDEO 🚨
Europe Is About To Print
Nik on the blowout in French bond yields against German bunds, why a falling euro says Europe is defending its bond market instead of its currency, and why bitcoin is holding up through a tighter dollar.
🚨 NEW VIDEO 🚨
Bitcoin's Volatility Is Dying (And That's Bullish)
Nik on why compressed volatility lets institutions size bitcoin bigger, the bitcoin gold ratio back above 20, and why bond yields at multi-decade highs point to a money creation event.
🚨 NEW VIDEO 🚨
Central Banks Have Lost Control with James Van Straten
@BTCJVS on the Bank of England reversing course on gilt sales, why the UK housing market has gone no bid as mortgages reset, and why AI may be the most deflationary force he has ever seen.
Bitcoin cleared $83,000 and the bear market looks dead. The bigger story is what comes next: bitcoin is front-running a money creation event. Watch Q4 repo and bond markets for the moment somebody cannot roll their debt. That is where the printing starts.
Read here on Pulse: thebitcoinlayer.com/research/bitco…
🚨 NEW VIDEO 🚨
The Bear Market Is Over
Nik on bitcoin blasting through $82,700 to $87,000, the short squeeze that ripped $1,500 out of the market in 100 seconds, and why the four-year cycle crowd got it wrong all year.
🚨 NEW VIDEO 🚨
Healthcare Is Eating 70% Of Federal Tax Revenue
@StuartLackey1 and @thebitcoinyogi on why $4 trillion of the $5 trillion the government collects goes to health spending, why the Medicare trust fund runs out in 2032, and how to hold real bitcoin in an HSA.
Bitcoin's rally has been losing momentum, with ETF flows turning to outflows, the Coinbase premium rolling over, and price slipping back into the $72,000 to $78,000 volume gap that has defined this bear range, closing at $75,786 on September 15.
The signal worth watching is that after a multi-week capitulation, the trend flip up that just triggered has never once been followed by a lower low, and a recovering hashrate suggests capital may be returning.
Johan Bergman (@johanmbergman) walks through the demand picture, the profit-taking data, and what it would take for $82,000 to finally break.
Read here on Pulse: thebitcoinlayer.com/research/bitco…
🚨 NEW VIDEO 🚨
What Happens If The Fed Hikes Tomorrow
Nik on the liquidity contraction behind bitcoin losing its trend line, why crude oil above $106 a barrel is driving global yields higher, and why he thinks the crisis response comes from Europe.
Markets are pricing a Fed hike after this week's CPI print, though 29 percentage points of the supercore jump came from a single line, wireless phone service prices.
A hike does little against phone bills or an oil supply shock, and it risks adding pressure to a labor market that is already soft.
TBL's base case for next week, and the four paths the Fed can take, are in this week's letter.
Read here on Pulse: thebitcoinlayer.com/research/globa…@AugustineCarrB
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