Timothy B. Lee @binarybits
Reporting on AI and the future of the economy. CS masters degree from Princeton. Newsletter: https://t.co/MAwkvzSSr3 Podcast: https://t.co/aJSErfcE8Y understandingai.org Washington, DC Joined March 2008-
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@lu_sichu @drethelin I guess the part I'm skeptical about is the "we should be worried" part. I 100% agree lab insiders if they say that there will continue to be capability improvments!
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"People inside the AI labs claim to have evidence that makes them more worried. And they are not allowed to talk about it." I have trouble taking this too seriously because it's been true for almost the entire 3.5 years I've been covering AI full time.
Dwarkesh Patel reveals an Anthropic employee told him two days ago they expect AIs to match humans at AI research within nine months based on inside information they can’t share, and says labs should make that evidence public “I think there’s a very frustrating element to the
@lu_sichu @drethelin You can characterize it in different ways, but my point is that a lot of folks in the labs believed in those accelerated timelines that haven't been born out.
@drethelin They were mostly right about capabilities, but they over-estimated real-world impacts.
@Jess_Riedel That is fair but I see that as closely tied to capabilities.
To be specific, the pattern of the last 4 years has been lab insiders correctly predicting rapid capabilities growth while overestimating the likely real-world consequences. I expect a continuation of both trends in 2027.
"People inside the AI labs claim to have evidence that makes them more worried. And they are not allowed to talk about it." I have trouble taking this too seriously because it's been true for almost the entire 3.5 years I've been covering AI full time.
@ameasure @chi_t_williams That is not a bad idea.
I used to employ a nanny and now employ @chi_t_williams. This has broken DC's tax system (household employers are considered separate from regular businesses) and I'm therefore unable to register to pay unemployment taxes. I've been on the phone for days trying to fix it.
@joshcmorrison @ArnabDatta321 I don't know any of them personally, but the vibe on lab-adjacent Twitter today seems pretty similar to 2023.
@SilverVVulpes A perceptive person in 2012 could have predicted Bitcoin would lead to a lot of ransomware attacks over the subsequent 3-5 years. By the standards of the cybersecurity industry this was a big deal. But it wasn't close to being a societal-scale catastrophe.
@SilverVVulpes Like if you are a Fortune 500 CEO you should be worried enough about this to give your CISO a bigger budget. But if you're a normal person you probably aren't going to notice the impact at all.
@shmameron @phrygiandomina I think that last sentence is probably wrong, but in any event I don't think lab employees have any special insight on it.
@SilverVVulpes Lab insiders have been right about capabilities but have been mostly wrong about the likely short-term impact on the rest of the economy/society, and I expect that to continue being true in 2027.
@SilverVVulpes To be clear I don't doubt that lab insiders are telling the truth when they say I is going to continue improving rapidly. What I'm less convinced about is that I should be extremely worried. And I don't think that's a question of capabilities.
@ramez @AIQuanting Some relevant evidence here I think. arxiv.org/abs/2607.27191
@shmameron @phrygiandomina Right, I'm not saying he was wrong before. Just that "surprisingly rapid capabilities progress plus surprisingly small impact on the real world" has been the norm for the last 4+ years.
@nicholasbs @chi_t_williams I think part of my problem might be that DC created a special category for household employers to make it less burdensome to employ nannies legally. But now I'm in not-a-real-employer jail and it's taking me extra work to get out.
@Zach766888 @phrygiandomina Arguably yes!
Disappointingly ignorant article from the Atlantic. There are rare times like 2009 when a lack of demand hurts the economy. But in general too much spending can cause as many problems (i.e. inflation) as too little. There's no general problem from people saving too much.
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