Resolve @ResolveMarkets

MAINE SENATE: Next up in our midterm analysis series is a closer look at the Maine senate race. This is the one that intrigues us the most after the Texas senate race in large part due to its unpredictability based on past polling errors. Let's first start with some history: 2020: Joe Biden wins Maine 53-44. Meanwhile, Susan Collins wins Maine 51-42. This is a huge ticket split in the modern political era. What's more, the polling error was *massive*. The @RCPolitics average of polls had the Democrat up somewhere around +5 heading into election day, with the final result a whopping +8.6 for *Collins*. This was an insane ~13 polling error! And this wasn't the first time - Collins has a history of massively outperforming her polls even before 2020. In 2014, she outperformed the RCP average of polls by +7.8, and in 2008, another massive blue year, she outperformed her polls by +8.4. So, where does this polling error come from? For one, Maine had been polled relatively poorly in past cycles. The last poll conducted in the 2020 cycle was an Emerson college poll with 611 likely voters in the last few days of October. And, nothing against Emerson as a pollster, there just wasn't a huge sample size right at the end. So, a smaller sample size is certainly partly responsible for this. But, our hunch is that it goes further than that. Maine is just generally more of an independent state. Recall that Maine's other senator is Angus King, formally an Independent (even though he caucuses with the Democrats). Furthermore, from everyone we've talked to on the ground in Maine, Susan Collins is not generally disliked in the way many other standard establishment politicians are. She has been able to navigate multiple elections successfully in large part due to her simple message of bringing money home for her state (newyorker.com/news/the-lede/…) and by being perceived as independent enough that she can attest to bucking her own party and President Trump where it makes sense for her constituents. Knowing this, let's now turn to today. 2026: This time around, there is more polling being conducted, but still not to the same extent that, say, Texas is in our first midterm analysis series. Maine is also more of a rural state than others are, making polling harder in some areas outside of the Portland metro area. Therefore, are we to distrust the polls? Not necessarily. But, the larger the sample size, the better we feel about accuracy. As it stands today, the RCP average of polls has the Democratic challenger, Troy Jackson, up around +1.6, far underperforming the D+8 environment on the generic congressional ballot that other Democrats are experiencing. Then, there's the elephant in the room: Graham Platner. With Platner bowing out of the race, Troy Jackson filled the Democratic spot. By all accounts, this has been an underwhelming transition, with polls barely budging as a result of the switch. We consider this switch a negative for Democrats, not because Platner would have been a better candidate in a head-to-head match-up (we'll never know the counterfactual) but because consistency is an asset in elections, and the circumstances by which Platner exited were not positive for the Democratic brand in Maine. It's not all positive for Collins, though. The demographics of the state have changed with more Bostonians moving to the Southern Portland area in the last six years, high fuel prices, a trade war with Maine's northern neighbor and trade partner Canada, and a generally negative environment nationally for Republicans, and her age all being headwinds for any GOP incumbent this cycle (although at 73 years of age, she is arguably young for the Senate). With such a messy pre-general timeline, it's tough to extrapolate certain primary metrics to the general as we did with Texas partisan turnout. For Maine, the best we can do is look at the 2020 baseline and make some demographic assumptions. We do so in the attached animation based off of our election projection analysis tool & data. The animation is split into three parts: the first being the 2020 split between President & senate. The second being a simulation of 10,000 elections. The third is a closer look at the potential polling error this time akin to past cycles. Ultimately, even with a more favorable environment for Democrats than past cycles where she has been on the ballot, we lean towards this being a Collins win. If there is even *half* the polling error this time as there was in 2020, it's still Collins' to lose. Our own modelling tells us that Jackson is a favorite up until we introduce a polling error. The polling error could, of course, not materialize this cycle as it has in the past. But, we are skeptical that it will be the case this time, particularly given the consistency of a favorable Collins polling error in the last three cycles where she has been on the ballot. Therefore, we still view Collins as the favorite. A Collins YES contract makes for an interesting hedge if your book is heavy long Democrats heading into November 3. As always, this is not a recommendation to trade any specific contract. Let us know what you think! You can make your own turnout assumptions for Maine and other states by making a free account and using our election projection tool: resolvemarkets.com/election-model…

Hey @keendawg & @Domahhhh we’re spreading the word on the excellent @EventualNews podcast. Had a 13 hour flight last week and it helped pass the time bigly!!! As we inch closer to Nov 3, you guys are putting out some great stuff on the little nuances of each race. Keep it up!

@BlondiePredicts @MickBransfield Nice - just signed up!

@GaetenD @PredMTrader Welp

Kyle Griffin @kylegriffin1

3 days ago

BREAKING NYT: Trump's new press secretary, Katie Zacharia, was fired Friday, after less than a week on the job, according to three people familiar with the matter. nytimes.com/2026/10/16/us/…

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@GaetenD @PredMTrader My 2c here… I think she stays. She was hand picked my DJT which makes it harder to fire her so soon since it would imply a mistake on his part.

@alch3my101 they're the best. Been running election bets since 2016 and each year gets better than the last.

We refuse to believe Blexas extends as far as the governorship. Consistent polling delta betwen Abbott and Paxton. Our thesis is Texas midterm Republicans vote for their governor and leave the senate section blank. Less than three weeks to go! Not a rec to trade.

Resolve @ResolveMarkets

a week ago

Since the GOAT was kind enough to share his midterm bets with the rest of us, here are ours below as well of what we plan to carry into election day (not a rec to trade): YES Dem House - 10,000 contracts YES TX GOP Gov - 8800 contracts YES FL GOP Gov - 7500 contracts YES AL GOP

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@thenarrator DM sent

@alch3my101 Then She doesn’t deserve you king

@BitBunnyArt_ done

Since the GOAT was kind enough to share his midterm bets with the rest of us, here are ours below as well of what we plan to carry into election day (not a rec to trade): YES Dem House - 10,000 contracts YES TX GOP Gov - 8800 contracts YES FL GOP Gov - 7500 contracts YES AL GOP Gov - 3700 contracts YES FL GOP Senate - 2000 contracts YES SC GOP Senate - 2000 contracts NO NY GOP Gov - 1000 contracts YES MN Dem Senate - 1000 contracts NO AZ GOP AG - 620 contracts NO OR GOP Gov - 500 contracts Planning to add at the right price: YES TX Dem Senate YES OH Dem Senate NO IA Dem Senate NO ME Dem Senate Let us know how half-baked you think our positions are in the comments below!

Gaeten Dugas @GaetenD

a week ago

My current midterm positions. I overpaid for several of them. Seems like I do that every cycle, forgetting how much cope affects prices leading up to Election Day.

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@Karoshi247 @Kalshi We've been wondering this too. Robbed of our top spot for bragging rights in elections volume!

This is a seriously underrated point by our new friend @Karoshi247 . When new traders to prediction markets ask us for advice and alpha, the one we will always give away for free is to demonstrate patience & do. not. overtrade. Often times, the price you want to pay will come to you if you give it time. And yes, profitable trades are key, but half the battle is avoiding the landmines that you step on by trading when - and what - you know you shouldn't. Attached is the trading activity from one of our cofounder's accounts where you can see the density graph clearly shows a drop-off since mid summer. We are comfortable with this as there have not been the opportunities we'd like to participate in. A small green month is better than a large red month. resolvemarkets.com/trade-analysis

Karoshi @Karoshi247

7 days ago

Half a Million Dollars! An important milestone reached 500k I want to emphasize how much patience is needed in prediction markets. In September I almost made no money, while July and August were the best months of my life. I didn’t panic — I just followed the plan. That’s the

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@alch3my101 @Kalshi @dennisrodman @KalshiSports Hell yeah brother ! Nothing but net !

@GaetenD Nice. With you on a few of these and yes, also overpaid for several. Curious what you make of South Carolina here? Seems like every cycle (i.e. Jamie Harrison in 2020) Dems get excited for a "reach" like this one. I've been adding at 86c.

@polyfactual Great analysis. Curious what you think about the Senate side? Sherrod Brown lost by 3.5% in a red year, after having won by ~7 in 2018. Think he can pull it out this year? We'd lean towards yes...(not a rec to trade)

@EventualNews @ryanjespersen super interesting segment - learned a lot about Alberta politics through this one!

@EventualNews @IAmNickReynolds It seems like every cycle, this happens in SC. I remember Jamie Harrison in 2020 trading as high as 25c on PI only for him to be defeated by 10 points in a blue year, too. I suppose I could see R+5 this time but a defeat?? I'd "pay to see it happen"! Not a rec to trade