Fajasy @StableBread

Continue reading here for the problem Boost Run had that its peers didn’t: newsletter.stablebread.com/p/boost-run-oc…

From June 1 to October 16, Boost Run $BRUN fell 77.3%, vs. 37.4-58.7% for CoreWeave $CRWV, Nebius $NBIS, and $IREN. That drop in AI infra stocks is tied to to rising bets on another Fed rate hike. Higher rates hurt GPU clouds in two ways, since they (1) raise the cost of the debt that pays for their GPUs and (2) lower what investors will pay today for profits that arrive years later. But all three peers kept or raised their 2026 targets: → $CRWV: Raised its 2026 revenue guidance to $12.4-13.2B on its Q2 call. → $IREN: Raised its year-end ARR target to more than $4B on July 20. → $NBIS: Reaffirmed its 2026 guidance with its Q2 results. The problem is that lenders are charging more now. CoreWeave’s 9.625% notes due 2032 yielded 14.74% on October 16, up from 13.19% on October 1, meaning CoreWeave would likely pay ~15%/year to borrow the same way today. So the selloff came from how investors now see the cost of funding the demand for GPU clouds, not from the demand itself.

@leevalueroach They are branching into egg products now to hedge when avian flu not big 🐣

A bond rally is when the 10-year Treasury yield falls and the high-yield spread tightens, so Treasuries and junk bonds both tend to gain. From late September to late December 2023, the 10-year yield fell 71 basis points to 3.88%, and high-yield spreads tightened 69 basis points. → Full video: youtu.be/_zHw6q2fArE

@xT1T00

@invest091

@FindleysFinance Everyone looked like a genius until last month or so 😗

@WillBiddy_ 7️⃣Eat cookies (everyday)

The S&P 500-to-gold ratio ended September 2026 at 1.83, meaning the S&P 500 index was worth 1.83 ounces of gold, below its 7-year average of 2.07. From the end of January 2025 to the end of September 2026, the S&P 500 rose 27% in dollars but fell 15% measured in gold. → Full video: youtu.be/XxBl0mEvtX4

@mkfilko

Just posted the $BRUN write-up here (you can read most of it for free): newsletter.stablebread.com/p/boost-run-oc…

I first wrote up an AI data center company that rents out $NVDA GPUs to AI startup companies on April 15, 2026, when it still traded as a SPAC at $10.70/share, just above its ~$10.60 trust value. The merger was a success, and the stock peaked at $39.20/share on June 1st. Now it trades below its SPAC price. That company is Boost Run $BRUN, which has fallen to $8.89/share, down 77.3% from its peak, even after it announced its largest disclosed contract on October 6 (worth $525.6M). The three larger listed GPU clouds have fallen from their 2026 highs as well, through the October 16 close: → CoreWeave $CRWV: Down 55.5% to $61.39/share. → $IREN: Down 60.2% to $26.99/share. → Nebius $NBIS: Down 42.3% to $165.47/share. So $BRUN fell with the group, but further than all three. I’d blame the drop from $39.20 on two causes that have nothing to do with $BRUN’s core operations: (1) higher rates and borrowing costs, and (2) $BRUN’s float growing ~3.1x, which was expected once its lockup ended and its warrants were called. Yet the business carries less risk than it did as a SPAC: → Contracts: $1.61B with disclosed terms and TCV over $2.6B, including $1.43B signed since my April write-up. → Customers: Thinking Machines Lab (the AI startup founded by former OpenAI CTO Mira Murati) and Cohere make up 61.9% of the $1.61B on three- to five-year terms, after three customers made up 75.9% of 2025 revenue, led by RunPod, a GPU cloud platform, at 44.5%. → Year-end target: If Thinking Machines’ GPUs are fully running by December 31 and the June order starts on November 30, the five disclosed contracts running by year-end cover $300.6M (75.1%) of the $400M ARR target. → Merger: Closed on May 8, 2026, with zero redemptions. → Balance sheet: The merger proceeds paid off its short-term bridge loans, the going-concern language is gone, and pro forma cash is $191.8M, up from the $108M I used in my June 3 update, right after the merger. But $BRUN still has to get the GPUs bought, financed, and running by December 31: → To reach the $1.0-1.2B of GPU spending management expects for 2026, $BRUN has to deploy $663-863M of GPU servers in H2 2026, 2.3-3.0x its cash and contracted prepayments. → CFO Erik Guckel said on the Q2 call that $BRUN is working on new ways to finance the build, but I found no new facility, lender, or term sheet in its filings or press releases from August 14 to October 16. → $BRUN’s named customers are private AI startups without investment-grade ratings, so its contracts are harder to borrow against. → If lessors funded 70% of the H2 2026 build instead of 79.5% (as in H1 2026), $BRUN would need $199-259M of its own cash for the build, more than its $191.8M of pro forma cash. → Both 10-Qs came late, after notices of late filing on May 26 and August 14, and $BRUN still reports three material weaknesses, the most serious kind of gap in a company’s financial reporting controls. → Founder and CEO Andrew Karos controls 87% of the vote. At $8.89/share, $BRUN’s EV is $989.7M. That’s 2.5x its $400M target for year-end ARR, down from 5.4x at the $22.93 price in my August 16 update. At 2.5x, $BRUN trades below all three peers, including $IREN at 3.2x. So did the thesis break, or just the stock? That’s what I answer in my new ~5k-word update on $BRUN, including my bear, base, and bull cases (Excel model included).

One difference from 2008: U.S. households aren't borrowing heavily. Household debt fell from 98% of GDP in early 2008 to about 66% in mid-2026, its lowest level since 1998, and it kept falling through the AI boom, from about 72% when ChatGPT launched. → Full video: youtu.be/ktg__0Sjv3U

OpenAI released ChatGPT on November 30, 2022. From then to its all-time high on October 6, 2026, the Nasdaq rose about 140%, and Nvidia, whose chips AI companies use to train their models, became the world's most valuable company, worth just under $5.8T. → Full video: youtu.be/ktg__0Sjv3U

After the Fed cut rates 3 times in the fall of 1998, more investors borrowed to buy: margin debt nearly tripled, from $103B in January 1997 to $300B in March 2000. In late 1999, only 1% of analysts' ratings were sells, and in April 2000 the Nasdaq fell 25% in a single week. → Full video: youtu.be/ktg__0Sjv3U

Margin debt hit a record $1.5T in June 2026, about 4.6% of U.S. GDP versus 3% at the dot-com peak. At the same time, borrowing is getting more expensive: the Fed raised rates in September 2026 for the first time since July 2023, and the 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.31%, its highest since May 2002. → Full video: youtu.be/ktg__0Sjv3U

@teechongyen Flying robots

In the 1990s, the internet went from a network for universities and governments to something anyone could use: people online grew from 14 million in 1993 to 281 million in 1999. Netscape's stock more than doubled on its first day, and in 1999 the average IPO jumped 71% on its first day of trading. → Full video: youtu.be/ktg__0Sjv3U

Index funds buy each stock in proportion to its size, and they held 52% of U.S. long-term fund assets at the end of 2025, up from 19% in 2010. So the more the largest AI stocks rise, the more of each new dollar they get. Tech is now 39.7% of the S&P 500, above its 33% peak in 2000. → Full video: youtu.be/ktg__0Sjv3U