Chamath Palihapitiya @chamath
Social Capital 8090 God is in the details. research.socialcapital.com In the Arena Joined April 2007-
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Pod!!!
POD UP! 🚨 Ben Horowitz (@bhorowitz) fills in for @friedberg! -- CoreWeave's Tanks After Debt Selloff: Did the AI Trade Just Crack? $CRWV -- AI Deflation and the Future of Software -- Anthropic IPO: Red Flags, Valuation, How Much to Raise? -- Psyop Corner with Sacks --
Pod!!!!
POD UP! 🚨 Ben Horowitz (@bhorowitz) fills in for @friedberg! -- CoreWeave's Tanks After Debt Selloff: Did the AI Trade Just Crack? $CRWV -- AI Deflation and the Future of Software -- Anthropic IPO: Red Flags, Valuation, How Much to Raise? -- Psyop Corner with Sacks --
@GrantHesser You may want to skip this weeks pod then
My research team is never wrong…
what the hell are they going to do?!?!? holy shit...
I suspect 70-80% of revenues at AI companies are from other AI companies who’ve raised money from the Venture industry. This is not a circular revenue problem but it is a revenue quality problem. We’ve seen this before in the SaaS cycle in the early/mid 2010s.
VC investors have enabled the AI industry to bastardize revenue reporting. In the 2010s, SaaS companies popularized reporting the metric of Annual Run Rate because it was a reliable measure of long term, contractual revenues into the future. The key is that the revenues are contracted and guaranteed thru the contract life hence why forecasting it forward is appropriate. VCs have taken this to mean Annualized Run Rate when AI is concerned and where you take transactional/API revenue from the last month (or even last week in some cases) and forecast it forward. It’s insane that investors have enabled this to happen but it’s happened.
The future is a merchant product that makes one’s inventory available via MCP / headlessly and accepts agent payments. I suspect shipping can be done thru fedex/ups/usps direct from merchant at similar cost when you strip out the Amazon take rate (ie merchant can spend more if needed to ship quickly). The moat isn’t what it is anymore. That is why they are blocking.
As I stated on the pod, it’s more critical for Ant to get public and get the $200B they need than to optimize for valuation. Find the market clearing price and go public asap. My guess, a few weeks ago, was that this price was +/- $1T. I’m still of this mindset and haven’t changed my mind.
BREAKING: Anthropic is now down over 10% in the last month, wiping more than $200 billion from its implied valuation. Anthropic’s pre-IPO perpetual has fallen below $2 trillion on Liquid as institutional investors get a closer look at the company’s financials.
Wow.
*ANDURIL TO SELL INSIDER SHARES AT ROUGHLY $90 BILLION VALUATION
Learn the past to rewrite the future…
Before an AI agent touches a legacy system, we map what that system can do. That map is a catalog of actions. Each one is linked to when it applies and which permissions govern it, built from three sources: the old code, the vendor systems you rent, and the experts who have run
I stand by these statements: “Everybody's going to have to get into the land power shell game and get your own electricity, and everybody's going to have to solve this. I actually think every company should probably break the seal and understand the energy shortage and think about buying LPS themselves. I do not think you're going to be able to rely on the clouds.”
@chamath riffed on a few big ideas at @ifs Unleashed 2026. constellationr.com/insights/news/…
Answer the call. If you are technical and want to help America then @USTechForce may be for you…
.@VP is calling on America’s best engineers to help solve some of our country’s toughest challenges. Through @USTechForce and @WHFraudTF, we’re recruiting technical talent to strengthen public service, fight fraud, and protect taxpayer dollars. Answer the call. Apply for Tech
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