ftrpoly @ftrpoly

Every time I travel I tend to lean more towards the "AI adoption is still in the extremely extremely early innings" side of the debate... Anecdotal evidence, but over the last few months I have had a dozen or so flights and would say 90%+ of work laptops i look at do not have chatgpt or Claude open and are doing work the same exact way people did work pre AI... Is entertaining to watch people hand-creating spreadsheets, hand-writing emails, doing all these knowledge work tasks that can now be done 4-5x faster and better... Highlights the slow moving nature of big corporations and the truth of "it's tough to teach an old dog new tricks".... On X here it is very easy to get cornered into a bubble by the algorithm of the top .0001% of AI users (used 10B tokens this week myself but am by no means an AI "wizard"). Think it is important to maintain perspective on the speed at which the broader world is really moving in regards to this

@rev_cap It just takes time to diffuse… speaking as someone working 60hrs a week implementing AI in a SMB food distributor, it will happen, slowly but surely

lol completely fucking retarded take.... step change in GDP growth isn't going to be from making powerpoints faster my brother, it is going to be from rapid advances in math/physics/medicine etc... and also, still need quite a big leap forwards in intelligence to truly displace huge amounts of white collar labor

The most insightful thing I read about technology eleven years ago was @benthompson’s Aggregation Theory. Amazon blocking Muse is another perfect example. Customers want one agent that knows them and can get things done. The platforms being aggregated want the opposite. They want to own the customer relationship, not become interchangeable suppliers behind someone else’s interface + protect their ad business. Imagine groceries: Your agent can compare Amazon, Instacart, DoorDash, and Uber Eats, then route every order to the best option. Amazon can block that access because it is a gigantic company. But smaller players have every incentive to offer agents a clean API and a seamless experience. If Instacart embraces agents while Amazon blocks them, the agent will increasingly route demand to Instacart. Customers will be happy, and Amazon will eventually face the dilemma: keep protecting the relationship, or match the better value proposition. This will be the defining tension of the agent economy: aggregators realizing they are now being aggregated. Amazon will push its own assistant, of course. But a vertical Amazon agent will struggle against a horizontal agent that already knows my email, calendar, preferences, memories, and entire life context. Many companies will want to become the aggregation layer. Very few actually can.

BuccoCapital Bloke @buccocapital

4 weeks ago

Amazon cuts off Muse. While I am bullish Meta and Muse, I think many people are overlooking the digital knife fight that’s about to occur Nobody wants to get commoditized or layered here. Let the games begin

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@chanian @abhay Hey Ian — tried to DM. Would love to chat sometime

do you ever take a step back and ask like the most absolutely basic question "is there a SINGLE thing in my life that is meaningfully more efficient due to AI, outside of writing code" Airbnb. Shit show. Uber. Shit show. Doordash. Worse than it was. Average employee: cooked. Power: doesn't work. Water: no idea if it's poisoned, govt is corrupt. Airlines: frozen for months at a time due to govt shut downs. Gasoline: mooning bc (checks notes) in a stalemated war w a 3rd world country Even GTA 6 apparently couldn't be accelerated with AI and took years to build. is there a single video game you actually play that's built entirely with AI? it seems like all the demos are just dudes making some shitty vaporware game nobody plays and the posts are like "yo I spent only $1,800 in tokens to make some dogshit that demos well for clout" and they have a $500k marketing subsidy from a lab. "I've been lucky enough to use Astra for 3 months and I finally can talk about it." okay, what the fuck did you ship? yes, you shipped nothing other than more AI analytics dashboards about how many tokens you're burning and all the AI influencers look like Twinks. like, they get the tokens bc they're in some weirdos polycule or burning man camp or whatever kinkfest in an SF sauna that moves the needle that's why this whole "Pace the frontier" thing is so retarded. Pace what exactly. Productivity is at ONE POINT FOUR PERCENT ANNUALIZED. THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ IS CLOSED. where is Anduril? where is the killer robot? if it's so dangerous can't you send it to a fcking war zone and win? oh. turns out it's not dangerous and you're just mentally ill. cool. but Trump says it can't stop. it won't stop. bc the debt and productivity situation is so fcked that AI is the ONLY REASONABLE WAY WE AVOID COMPLETE ECONOMIC COLLAPSE. but once you understand how utterly insane that all is - you see how bullish it is. AI literally doesn't fucking work. Subagents are a meme bc agents break down at 2 orders of abstractions and start vomiting technical debt and overengineered garbage. Everyone is working 2x as much to manage agents, not going for a walk voice prompting. do you have any idea how much money needs to be invested to move productivity from 1.4% to 4%? ALL THE MONEY. So that's the joke. Dario says we need to slow down. And what, see productivity at 0%? So it's either Trumplandia where we invest all the money in an insane hail mary that will probably not work. Or Dario world where we managed the inevitable collapse with an AI powered global government. Pick your poison. Either way the Data Centers won't default.

i mean yeah. i have some ideas of why it's ant employees that are quitting and why it's dario and not one of the other lab leaders who wrote the essay and why other labs are agreeing *with* him. we'll see soon enough i guess

peepeepoopoo @DeepDishEnjoyer

a month ago

unfortunately in the next 2 weeks or so you're going to learn about internal capabilities that you'd wish weren't available already

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@sama Work on alignment instead of making jokes

I resigned from Anthropic today. I spent the last three years doing pretraining research at both OpenAI and Anthropic. Neither company is acting responsibly. They are racing straight to self-improving superintelligence and gambling with our lives. More thoughts below.

This is GPT-6 Astra. Anything you can do on a computer, Astra can do for you. Fast.

Jcal, I love you, and I say this with the love and appreciation for you, but you have zero clue what you’re talking about. This is the dumbest take of all time! We’re playing 2/4K 20k ante, the biggest game everyone in the lineup has ever played beside me and Rick. Only 3 of the 15 players who played are professional gamblers, the rest are business people playing for the fun and excitement. No one is advertising to win in “50k” buy-in games, I don’t and wouldn’t even play a 50k buy-in game! These are real pots and real emotions. I don’t know how you don’t get it, I once saw you about to shit your pants when you got all in for 100k with your QQ against 74s and beg to run it twice! Imagine how you would feel playing 4m pots. If you asked your two home game buddies @stanleytang @Elamawy before tweeting this nonesone they would tell you how retarded you are! Now I know why @chamath @DavidSacks and @friedberg get so tilted at fired up at you on the podcast sometimes! 😀😂

@jason @Jason

2 months ago

At this level, in televised deep stack poker, there is so much going on Ego, performance and staking. performance creates reputation Reputation will dictate how people play against you in a thousand other cash games — so this is an investment These performances are

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I hate building frontends with AI. Claude, Codex, and Kimi can generate a dashboard in 30 seconds. Then I spend the next six hours explaining that the main button is invisible, the table breaks on mobile, and every screen looks like the same pile of rounded cards. I've installed the design skills. I've fed it screenshots from Linear and Stripe. I've used the “premium, minimal, Apple-level” prompts. It helps. It never removes the babysitting. AI is incredible at writing frontend code. It is still terrible at knowing when a product feels cheap, confusing, or annoying to use. One-shot AI frontend design is a lie. The first 70% takes 30 seconds. The last 30% ruins your Saturday.

@DeepDishEnjoyer Healthcare is gonna be > both of those imo

@NateSilver538 Or u could walk 5 min

@benln Pls include me

In today’s @BostonGlobe

My interpretation of this: Right now, Anthropic and OpenAI are making a killing by selling enterprise FDE services to F500s, building workflows for them on top of proprietary models, then using the traces and context from this to build RL envs to improve the models. This is crazy amounts of leverage - instead of buying this data they're getting paid gigantic consulting fees to extract it. This also goes way beyond typical consulting in scope - organizations are effectively outsourcing key learning curves and domain knowledge to the AI labs. Despite that, it's so far been worth it for them because the value of skilled FDE is so high and the ROI so fast, and orgs are willing to pay a premium for competent AI implementation. But in the long run, one of two things happens: either orgs are gonna get hooked on this and end up paying for the model training that replaces their business, or they find a way to build and own their own model ecosystem. What that looks like is developing some combination of AI models, evals, RL envs, and workflows. Initially probably the model will still be an off-the-shelf frontier model from a top lab. But as firms build out more sophisticated eval / RL env (increasingly the same thing) infra, it starts to become viable to post-train an custom model on top of an OSS base. Cursor have done this successfully with their Composer model RL'd on top of Kimi. Sidenote, this is the same conversation that a lot of national governments in Europe are having in the past week. When we look at what the rhetoric about 'sovereign AI' in the UK actually boils down to, it's doing custom post-training on top of an OSS model, and then running it on local GPUs. Ultimately, the current feeding frenzy for AI services in all of its guises - FDE, AI consulting, etc - should raise questions about long-term sustainability. If consulting services are truly a value add and competitive advantage, then in the long term you want to in-house.

Satya Nadella @satyanadella

4 months ago

x.com/i/article/2065…

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The only way this move is rational is if the U.S. admin is absolutely certain Chinese open source models are about to fall badly behind as Mythos level models employ anti-distillation. This is in fact more bullish for the AI trade than anything else including limiting international TAM. As long as America can export the products it creates with AI to the rest of the world the AI TAM is global. And the last year of tariff wars has demonstrated that the direction of travel is in favor of American export access. This is bullish AI. The biggest risk was always the Chinese.

Interesting snippet from Situational Awareness given the recent government interest in taking stakes in OAI/Anthropic